Table of Contents
TL;DR
2026 is shaping up to be the year quantum security moves from awareness to action. The convergence of technical progress, credible threat timelines, and early standardization efforts is shifting the conversation from whether quantum will impact cryptography to how quickly organizations must respond.
A perspective from Dr. Timothy Day
Since starting Monarch Quantum, I have spent considerable time speaking with customers, partners, and researchers about where quantum technology is beginning to appear in real-world applications. One theme continues to emerge: security threats are no longer theoretical.
This is why I agree with what The Quantum Insider has identified as 2026 being the “Year of Quantum Security.”
Quantum security, including quantum cryptography and quantum key distribution (QKD), has often been perceived as secondary to the rapid progress in quantum computing. However, the underlying challenge has remained constant while the maturity of potential solutions has accelerated. Recent developments from Google Quantum AI and Oratomic, in partnership with Caltech, indicate that the timeline is shifting more quickly than previously anticipated.
What is quantum cryptography?
For those who have studied classical computer science, Alice and Bob are the main characters in models for secure communications. Their story originates from the 1978 paper “A Method for Obtaining Digital Signatures and Public-Key Cryptosystems” by Ron Rivest, Adi Shamir, and Leonard Adleman, the originators of the ubiquitous RSA encryption system.
Quantum cryptography builds upon this framework by leveraging the laws of physics, rather than relying solely on mathematical complexity, to secure communications. One of the most prominent approaches is quantum key distribution (QKD), which enables two parties to generate and share encryption keys using quantum states. Any attempt to intercept or measure those quantum states inherently alters them, making eavesdropping detectable.
At the same time, most of today’s digital infrastructure relies on classical encryption systems such as RSA-2048. RSA remains secure because factoring large numbers is computationally difficult for classical computers. This assumption underpins the security of financial systems, healthcare data, intellectual property, and national defense infrastructure.
Quantum computing begins to challenge this assumption by enabling the use of calculational methods that are only possible using a quantum computer, such as Shor’s algorithm, that can factor large numbers exponentially faster.
Why this matters now
Encryption is often invisible until it fails, yet it underpins nearly every critical system in modern society.
A frequently overlooked reality is that threats are already in motion. Organizations are actively harvesting encrypted data today with the expectation that it can be decrypted once sufficiently capable quantum systems become available. This is often referred to as “harvest now, decrypt later” surveillance attack.
At the same time, institutions such as the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) and the National Security Agency (NSA) are urging organizations to begin transitioning to post-quantum cryptography (PQC). PQC refers to new cryptographic algorithms designed to run on classical computers that can resist attacks from both classical and quantum computing systems.
This is not a distant concern. It is an active migration challenge that organizations must address now.
The technology barrier is moving faster than expected
The most significant shift is the pace at which the technical threshold is evolving.
As recently as 2019, breaking RSA-2048 was estimated to require approximately 20 million noisy qubits and substantial runtime, placing the risk well into the future.
By 2025, research from Google Quantum AI suggested that this requirement could decrease to roughly 1 million noisy qubits, representing a meaningful reduction in scale. In their most recent white paper, Google Quantum AI suggested a theoretical design that requires < 100,000 physical qubits and a new compressed timeline to post-quantum migration by 2029.
Within the same week Caltech in partnership with new breakout company, Oratomic, suggests architectures and error correction schemes that may further compress these requirements. Caltech’s research indicates that Shor’s algorithm could be implemented with approximately 10,000 atoms using neutral atom hardware with fault-tolerant qubits. This utility-focused, lower-overhead approach represents a notable shift from theoretical progress toward practical feasibility.
The implication is not that RSA-2048 will fail immediately. Rather, it indicates that the gap between theoretical capability and real-world implementation is narrowing more rapidly than expected.
What this moment represents
From my perspective, 2026 is not the year quantum systems suddenly break encryption. It is the year the industry collectively recognizes that delaying action is no longer a viable option.
We are entering a transition period defined by clearer risk awareness, emerging enabling technologies, and increasingly compressed timelines.
Quantum security is no longer confined to academic research. It is becoming a systems engineering challenge, a policy priority, and ultimately a business decision.
As with most technological transitions, organizations that act early will not only improve their security posture but will also be better positioned to lead in what comes next.